For decades, retirement investors have been taught that they should invest most of their savings in broadly diversified stock portfolios, because for decades (1982-2022) broadly diversified stock portfolios have gone up 6%/year on average, plus dividends of 2-4 ( Read more... )

No banks failed in the US during 2021 or 2022.  Similarly, no banks failed in the US during 2005 and 2006.  Yet, 140 banks failed in 2009, and 157 failed in 2010 -- during the height of the Great Recession.  More typically, between 4 and 10 banks fail each year.  But during boom times it is easy for even the worst bank in the country to stay afloat ( Read more... )

not ranked in any particular order ...

White House v. Congress over the debt ceiling, the federal deficit, and federal spending

Federal Reserve v. financial markets over inflation, the economy, and bubbly asset prices

NATO v. Russia over Ukraine

China v. Australia-Japan-US over the Taiwan Strait

Capitalism v. Greens over greenhouse gas

It is possible for both of these statements to be true ( Read more... )

2023 is my Year of the Bear,

I'm all --> this is going to be much worse than anybody expected, LOL

Projected bear market bottom between Sep 2024 and Feb 2025, making a small shift toward more stocks.

Model portfolio:



Vanguard Total World Stock

36%

Vanguard Short-term Corp

51%

Vanguard Total Corp

13%

The broad US stock market opened and closed today in a bear market, down more than 20% from its high on January 3 of this year. The precipitating factor appeared to be Friday's consumer price index reading for May, which had increased from the previous month. April's reading had decreased from March's, which had led to a lot of articles in the ( Read more... )

By my calculation the US stock market (measured using VTI) is down 19.92% from its all-time high, very close to a bear market --> defined as a decline of at least 20%. Usually when we move into a bear market I start to increase my percentage of stock ownership in my retirement account toward my theoretical optimum long-term investment mix ( Read more... )

I don't mean the people living inside these countries, I mean the governments running these countries -- the following governments are having so much trouble raising cash that they are paying interest of 20% or more (either short-term or long-term) on their debts:

Russia (20%)

Zambia (25%)

Turkey (27%)

Ukraine (35%)

Argentina (50%)

Venezuela

30 = x*23.5 + (1-x)*43.07

30 = 43.07 + 23.5x - 43.07x

30 - 43.07 = x * (23.5 - 43.07)

x = (30 - 43.07) / (23.5 - 43.07)